Publications and research

– January 19, 2017 refsmmat.com

Here's a list of the major projects I've worked on and my key publications. My CV contains a compact listing of all my publications, plus any other career details you care to read. My ORCID profile also has an up-to-date list of publications.

I post arXiv preprints of all my published research articles, so they are freely accessible to those without library subscriptions.

Predictive policing

I currently work with Joel Greenhouse and Xizhen Cai to design statistical models to predict crime by using crime hotspots, spatial features, seasonal factors, and leading indicators (like 311 calls, criminal mischief, and so on). My goal is both to improve crime prediction and to provide inference tools for criminologists to understand factors that lead to crime. I also work on evaluation and diagnostic methods to understand the performance of predictive policing models.

This work is supported by a National Institute of Justice Graduate Research Fellowship (GRF-STEM).

Radiation anomaly detection

As an undergraduate I started a project (supervised by Alex Athey of Applied Research Laboratories) to devise methods to continuously monitor the radiation background in a wide area and detect any sudden changes, such as might be introduced by a dirty bomb or stolen radioactive source. We built a system which uses gamma spectroscopy to compare new measurements to previous observations of the radiation background, making it feasible to monitor a wide area with mobile detectors and rapidly detect changes.

At Carnegie Mellon University, I continued the project under Valérie Ventura and Chad Schafer, proposing a new method based on Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests. James Scott and Wesley Tansey continued the work to devise a new spatial smoother for radiation spectra.

  1. Padilla, O. H. M., Athey, A., Reinhart, A., & Scott, J. G. (2016, December). Sequential nonparametric tests for a change in distribution: An application to detecting radiological anomalies. Submitted. http://arxiv.org/abs/1612.07867
  2. Tansey, W., Athey, A., Reinhart, A., & Scott, J. G. (2016). Multiscale spatial density smoothing: An application to large-scale radiological survey and anomaly detection. Journal of the American Statistical Association. doi:10.1080/01621459.2016.1276461. http://arxiv.org/abs/1507.07271 (In press)
  3. Reinhart, A., Ventura, V., & Athey, A. (2015). Detecting changes in maps of gamma spectra with Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests. Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research A, 802, 31–37. doi:10.1016/j.nima.2015.09.002. http://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06954
  4. Reinhart, A., Athey, A., & Biegalski, S. (2014). Spatially-Aware Temporal Anomaly Mapping of Gamma Spectra. IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science, 61(3), 1284–1289. doi:10.1109/TNS.2014.2317593. http://arxiv.org/abs/1405.1135
  5. Reinhart, A. (2013, April). An Integrated System for Gamma-Ray Spectral Mapping and Anomaly Detection (Undergraduate thesis). University of Texas at Austin. https://hdl.handle.net/2152/20071

My book Statistics Done Wrong was published in March 2015 by No Starch Press. Covering common statistical errors present in a wide range of current scientific research -- not just simple misuses of t tests but failures of statistical power, unnoticed pseudoreplication, effect size inflation, and much more -- it has since been translated into German, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean.

Other articles in the popular press:

  1. Reinhart, A. (2014). Huff and puff. Significance, 11(4), 28–33. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2014.00765.x

Letters, editorials, and miscellany

  1. Response to "Crime Places in Context" (PDF) (May 2016), a letter to the editor regarding statistical errors in an article by Deryol et al. in the Journal of Quantitative Criminology. Their reply.
  2. Comment on "Inigo Montoya and Statistical Significance" (April 2016), an invited reply to a column by Joseph Bernstein in Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research.